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I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923312
midst of credit intensive booms and bring about particularly deep and long-lasting recessions. We attempt to explain these … information on this market may generate sudden interbank market freezes, SBCs, credit crunches and, ultimately, severe recessions …. Simulations of a calibrated version of the model indicate that typical SBCs break out in the midst of a credit boom generated by a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086964
This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After … building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses … panel probit models to analyse key determinants of credit-less recoveries. Our main findings are the following. First, our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123785
to activate macroprudential tools targeting excessive credit growth and leverage. To robustly select the key indicators … using credit to GDP gaps, credit to GDP ratios and credit growth rates, as well as real estate variables in addition to a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049466
bank credit cycle) and enables monitoring across countries in a simple and informative way. Indicators are derived from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948367
of financial market crisis, i.e. those preceded by a spell of credit and real estate expansions. The aim is to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156232
We use multivariate unobserved components models to estimate trend and cyclical components in GDP, credit volumes and … cycles in credit and house prices, which are highly correlated with a medium-term component in GDP cycles. Differences across … pseudo real-time estimates of credit and house price cycles is roughly comparable to that of GDP cycles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988605
This paper explores the link between agent expectations and housing market dynamics. We focus on shifts in the fundamental driving forces of the economy that are anticipated by rational forward-looking agents, i.e. news shocks. Using Bayesian methods and U.S. data, we find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025023
pecuniary externality generates large reductions in the volatility of real estate prices and credit. Therefore, policies that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231956
We use monthly data on individual loans from the Italian Credit Register over the period from 1997 to 2019 and show … that bank credit expansions in the non-financial private sector are mostly explained by variations in the extensive margin … calculated either in credit flows or headcount of new borrowers. We then build on a flow approach to decompose changes in the net …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827866