Labour shortages have become prevalent across advanced economies. Yet, little is known about which firms are more likely to face them and the impact they have on the labour market. We create a firm-level data set spanning 28 EU countries, 283 regions and 18 sectors, contributing to close this...

We study how shocks to corporate leverage alter the macroeconomic transmission of monetary policy. We identify leverage shocks as idiosyncratic firm-level disturbances that are aggregated up to a size-weighted country-level average to generate a Granular Instrumental Variable (Gabaix and Koijen,...

This paper uses a time-varying Factor Augmented VAR to investigate the evolving transmission of monetary policy and demand shocks in the UK. Simultaneous estimation of time-varying impulse responses of a large set of macroeconomic variables and disaggregated prices suggest that the response of...

We use a novel disaggregate sectoral euro area data set with a regional breakdown to investigate price changes and suggest a new method to extract factors from over-lapping data blocks. This allows us to separately estimate aggregate, sectoral, country-specific and regional components of price...

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...

In a stochastic frontier setting, we examine technical efficiency in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Evidence suggests that in addition to economic indicators, political and social ones play a key role in development and frontier technical efficiency profiles. The MENA have been...

We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction between macroeconomic and trade variables. First, we show that macroeconomic variables are necessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can be explained by the high correlation between trade and...

We bring together the spatial and global vector autoregressive (GVAR) classes of econometric models by providing a detailed methodological review of where they meet in terms of structure, interpretation, and estimation methods. We discuss the structure of cross-section connectivity (weight)...

We propose a framework to identify a rich set of structural drivers of inflation in order to understand the role of the multiple and concomitant sources of the post-pandemic inflation surge. We specify a medium-sized structural Bayesian VAR on a comprehensive set of variables for the euro area...

This paper proposes a central fiscal capacity for the euro area that generates transfers in response to euro area, country, and region-specific shocks. The main novelty of this fiscal capacity is that it allows a joint response to these three types of shocks within a single scheme. Based on...