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This paper explores the link between agent expectations and housing market dynamics. We focus on shifts in the fundamental driving forces of the economy that are anticipated by rational forward-looking agents, i.e. news shocks. Using Bayesian methods and U.S. data, we find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025023
Housing prices are subject to boom and bust episodes with long-lasting deviation from fundamentals. By considering a present value housing price model under noisy information, I study the macroeconomic implications of movements in housing prices related (news) and not related (noise) to future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986653
The main aim of this paper is to apply a method based on fundamentals ─ which has already been applied in the stock market analysis ─ to detect boom/bust in the housing market, with a focus on the euro area. In this context, an underlying model is developed and tested. It turns out that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036277
main facts: first, the features of residential mortgage markets differ markedly across industrialized countries; second … house prices is significantly stronger in those countries with larger flexibility/development of mortgage markets; third …, the transmission to consumption is stronger only in those countries where mortgage equity release is common and mortgage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316354
The contribution of this paper is to revisit the Early Warning System (EWS) literature by analysing selected episodes of financial market crisis, i.e. those preceded by a spell of credit and real estate expansions. The aim is to disentangle instances when this constitutes a natural phenomenon...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156232
In comparison with the large literature on house prices, housing investments have been studied far less. This paper investigates the behavior of private residential investments for the six largest European economies, namely: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102106
Since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis, the presence of institutional investors in housing markets has steadily increased over time. Real estate funds (REIFs) and other housing investment firms leverage large-scale buy-to-rent investments in real estate assets that enable them to set...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825848
towards mortgage indebtedness. We find that a given debt burden creates much higher distress in countries with fewer mortgage … holders relative to countries where a significant part of households uses mortgage debt. This effect is net of ppp …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013147952
term interest rates, local and global money and credit developments, and the incidence of mortgage market deregulation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158164
Boom-bust cycles in real estate markets have been major factors in systemic financial crises and therefore need to be at the forefront of macroprudential policy. The geographically differentiated nature of real estate market fluctuations implies that these policies need to be granular across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020662