This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate …

, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model … much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models … that excessively focused on the global nature of inflation were liable to miss the contribution of deflationary domestic …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

The aim of this study is to assess empirically to what extent the degree of heterogeneity of consumers’ inflation …

cross-country differences in the mismatch of perceived and actual inflation in the aftermath of the cash changeover are …

-country data set and a broad array of variables, in order to test the inflation forecasting performance of extracted factors at the … indicators of inflation, but the comparative advantage of the factors is less clear. Nevertheless, alternative indicators such as …

We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a … a new estimation technique, we look at tail co-movements between short- and long-term distributions of inflation … expectations, estimated from daily quotes of inflation derivatives. We find that, during 2014, average correlations between short …

inflation expectations and consumer spending. We document that for the Euro Area and almost all of its constituent countries … this relationship is generally positive: a higher expected change in inflation is associated with an increase in the … probabilities from our micro-level analysis, we indirectly estimate the impact of a gradual increase in inflation expectations on …

assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …