We estimate and forecast growth in euro area monthly GDP and its components from a dynamic factor model due to Doz et …

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising … Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2006) and Banbura and Ruenstler (2007). An out-of-sample forecast comparison exercise is also … carried out for each component and GDP directly. The forecast performance is found to vary widely across components. Two …

. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …