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A Quantitative Mirror on the Euribor Market Using Implied Probability Density Functions

de Vincent-Humphreys, Rupert - 2011

This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months' time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over ten...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132237

On Approximating DSGE Models by Series Expansions

Lombardo, Giovanni - 2010

We show how to use a simple perturbation method to solve non-linear rational expectation models. Drawing from the applied mathematics literature we propose a method consisting of series expansions of the non-linear system around a known solution. The variables are represented in terms of their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136525

Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns : A Score Driven State Space Model

Delle Monache, Davide - 2020

In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441

Would the Bundesbank Have Prevented the Great Inflation in the United States?

Benati, Luca - 2009

Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s' United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank – which is near-universally...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153230

Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements

Glatzer, Ernst; Scheicher, Martin - 2003

, we implement the mixture of log-normals model and a volatility-smoothing method. We discuss the time series behaviour of … second main observation is a significant spillover of volatility, as the implied volatility and kurtosis of the DAX RND are … mostly driven by the volatility of US stock prices. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604258

Estimation and Forecasting in Large Datasets with Conditionally Heteroskedastic Dynamic Common factors

Alessi, Lucia - 2009

volatility of returns. Moreover, we are able to predict all the conditional covariances among the observable series …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154951

Exact Likelihood Computation for Nonlinear DSGE Models with Heteroskedastic Innovations

Amisano, Gianni - 2011

Phenomena such as the Great Moderation have increased the attention of macro-economists towards models where shock processes are not (log-) normal. This paper studies a class of discrete-time rational expectations models where the variance of exogenous innovations is subject to stochastic regime...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125226

Assessing the Compensation for Volatility Risk Implicit in Interest Rate Derivatives

Fornari, Fabio - 2021

volatility risk, for dollar, euro and pound rates at a daily frequency, between October 1998 and August 2006. The measurement of … the volatility risk premium rests on a simple model according to which variance forecasts are generated under the … large - negative - compensation for volatility risk, a component which was smaller in absolute terms - but not relative to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316627

VAR for VaR : Measuring Tail Dependence Using Multivariate Regression Quantiles

White, Jr., Halbert L. - 2015

This paper proposes methods for estimation and inference in multivariate, multi-quantile models. The theory can simultaneously accommodate models with multiple random variables, multiple confidence levels, and multiple lags of the associated quantiles. The proposed framework can be conveniently...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020592

Bayesian Analysis of Recursive SVAR Models with Overidentifying Restrictions

Kociecki, Andrzej - 2012

The paper provides a novel Bayesian methodological framework to estimate structural VAR (SVAR) models with recursive identification schemes that allows for the inclusion of over-identifying restrictions. The proposed framework enables the researcher to elicit the prior on the non-zero...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097952