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distinctive features, what they are used for, and how they can be derived from economic theory. It also describes how they are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088488
distinctive features, what they are used for, and how they can be derived from economic theory. It also describes how they are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605552
Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the estimates produced by these priors can still have appreciable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860054
productivity in advanced and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). This paper uses a new method to extract technology … shocks that excludes these influences, resulting in lasting improvements in labor productivity. The same methodology in turn … is used to identify a stylized example of the effects of a demand shock on productivity. Technology innovations are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233716
This paper develops a multi-way analysis of variance for non-Gaussian multivariate distributions and provides a practical simulation algorithm to estimate the corresponding components of variance. It specifically addresses variance in Bayesian predictive distributions, showing that it may be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117720
priors can be naturally elicited using economic theory, which provides guidance on the joint dynamics of macroeconomic time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012926335
Bayesian approaches to the estimation of DSGE models are becoming increasingly popular. Prior knowledge is normally formalized either be information concerning deep parameters’ values (‘microprior’) or some macroeconomic indicator, e.g. moments of observable variables (‘macroprior’)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316112
This paper considers Bayesian regression with normal and double-exponential priors as forecasting methods based on large panels of time series. We show that, empirically, these forecasts are highly correlated with principal component forecasts and that they perform equally well for a wide range...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317338
Bayesian decisions are observationally identical to decisions with judgment. Decisions with judgment test whether a judgmental decision is optimal and, in case of rejection, move to the closest boundary of the confidence interval, for a given confidence level. The resulting decisions condition...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014260937
for a dynamic interaction in explaining total factor productivity (TFP). Relative to the existing literature, our model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089240