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Market participants often invest in order to acquire information that pertains to the market itself (e.g. order flow) rather than to fundamentals. This enables them to infer more information from past trades. I show that agents trading on such information, typically high-frequency traders,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082533
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054678
speculative trading increases. As a result, market liquidity deteriorates and short-term volatility rises. Our findings hold for a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868588
We propose a new approach to measuring the effect of unobservable private information or beliefs on volatility. Using … high-frequency intraday data, we estimate the volatility effect of a well identified shock on the volatility of the stock … that, as the publicly available information becomes stale, volatility effects and its persistence should increase, as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317418
During 2005-2006, the Chinese government implemented a reform aimed at eliminating the so-called non-tradable shares (NTS) typically held by the State or by politically connected institutional investors that were issued at the early stage of financial market development. Our analysis, based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125357
-varying consumption volatility risk is essential for obtaining the inversion of the real curve and allows to price the average level and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921898
We provide evidence that changes in the equity price and volatility of individual firms (measures that approximate the … fluctuations in a number of countries. Specifically, adding the return and the volatility of firm-level equity prices to aggregate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121824
spot prices, although only in the short run. Moreover, financial activity appears to have exacerbated the volatility in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124900
In this paper we examine the quantitative effects of margin regulation on volatility in asset markets. We consider a … of collateral constraints leads to strong excess volatility. Thus, a regulation of margin requirements may have … in the regulation of one class of assets may have only small effects on these assets' return volatility if investors have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051665