. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …

This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …

similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and following recovery seems to produce the best …

the forecast exercise and for the full sample. However, the rational expectations model typically predicts real GDP growth … forecast horizon, while the adaptive learning model predicts better for the outer quarters …

essentially requires the assessment of the impact of new data on the subsequent forecast revisions for the target variable. We … data releases and the resulting forecast revisions. To illustrate our ideas, we study the nowcast of euro area GDP in the …

included in both surveys further improves the accuracy of both, the PMI and the SPF-based forecast …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …