. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …

This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …

unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast …

similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and following recovery seems to produce the best …

essentially requires the assessment of the impact of new data on the subsequent forecast revisions for the target variable. We … data releases and the resulting forecast revisions. To illustrate our ideas, we study the nowcast of euro area GDP in the …

included in both surveys further improves the accuracy of both, the PMI and the SPF-based forecast …

models over different samples, including the recent financial crisis. To do so, we construct factor models to forecast …