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The Global Financial Crisis : Trying to Understand the Global Trade Downturn and Recovery
Anderton, Robert; Tewolde, Tadios - 2021
2008Q4-2009Q1 was so severe and synchronized across the world, and also examines the subsequent recovery in global trade … world imports during the crisis, while declines in the highly import-intensive expenditure category of investment also … amplified the downturn in world trade and partly explains its high-degree of synchronisation across the globe. In addition, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315987
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Distance(s) and the Volatility of International Trade(s)
Mehl, Arnaud - 2019
Does distance matter for the volatility of international real and financial transactions? We show that it does, in addition to its well-established relevance for the level of trade. A simple model of trade with endogenous markups shows that demand shocks have a larger impact on trade between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889878
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The global financial crisis: trying to understand the global trade downturn and recovery
Anderton, Robert; Tewolde, Tadios - 2011
2008Q4-2009Q1 was so severe and synchronized across the world, and also examines the subsequent recovery in global trade …-level can explain a significant proportion of the decline in world imports during the crisis, while declines in the highly …”, suggesting that widespread global production chains may have amplified the downturn in world trade and partly explains its high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605416
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Gravity chains: estimating bilateral trade flows when parts and components trade is important
Baldwin, Richard; Taglioni, Daria - 2011
Trade is measured on a gross sales basis while GDP is measured on a net sales basis, i.e. value added. The rapid internationalisation of production in the last two decades has meant that gross trade flows are increasingly unrepresentative of value added flows. This fact has important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605446
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Gravity Chains : Estimating Bilateral Trade Flows When Parts and Components Trade is Important
Baldwin, Richard E. - 2011
Trade is measured on a gross sales basis while GDP is measured on a net sales basis, i.e. value added. The rapid internationalization of production in the last two decades has meant that gross trade flows are increasingly unrepresentative of value added flows. This fact has important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118685
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Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events
Lo Duca, Marco; Peltonen, Tuomas A. - 2011
This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605357
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Mapping the state of financial stability
Sarlin, Peter; Peltonen, Tuomas A. - 2011
The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605428
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On policymakers' loss function and the evaluation of early warning systems
Sarlin, Peter - 2013
This paper introduces a new loss function and Usefulness measure for evaluating early warning systems (EWSs) that incorporate policymakers' preferences between issuing false alarms and missing crises, as well as individual observations. The novelty derives from three enhancements: i) accounting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605554
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Predicting distress in European banks
Betz, Frank; Oprica, Silviu; Peltonen, Tuomas A.; … - 2013
The paper develops an early-warning model for predicting vulnerabilities leading to distress in European banks using both bank and country-level data. As outright bank failures have been rare in Europe, the paper introduces a novel dataset that complements bankruptcies and defaults with state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605642
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Mapping the State of Financial Stability
Sarlin, Peter - 2011
The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120562