This paper investigates leading indicators of systemic banking crises in a panel of 11 EU countries, with a particular focus on Finland. We use quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2013Q2, in order to create a large number of macro-financial indicators, as well as their various transformations. We make...

This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic...

There is a need to find better models and indicators for large disruptive events, not least in order to be more prepared and mitigate their effects. In this paper we take a step in this direction and discuss the performance of a financial stress indicator with a specific focus on the euro area....

The empirical literature on systemic banking crises (SBCs) has shown that SBCs are rare events that break out in the midst of credit intensive booms and bring about particularly deep and long-lasting recessions. We attempt to explain these phenomena within a dynamic general equilibrium model...

This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks' large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral...

This paper argues that counter-cyclical liquidity hoarding by financial intermediaries may strongly amplify business cycles. It develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which banks operate subject to agency problems and funding liquidity risk in their inter- mediation activity....

The primary driver of commercial bank failures during the Great Recession was exposure to the real estate sector, not aggregate funding strains. The main "toxic" exposure was credit to non-household real estate borrowers, not traditional home mortgages or agency-issued MBS. Private-label MBS...

This paper assesses the trends of some main macroeconomic and macro-financial variables across different time horizons related to systemic banking crises. Specifically, by gradually shifting the observation horizon of the same statistical model across time, it observes how these variables are...

In European countries recently hit by a sovereign debt crisis, the share of domestic sovereign debt held by the national banking system has sharply increased, raising issues in their economic and financial resilience, as well as in policy design. This paper examines these issues by analyzing the...

We document the twin crisis that affected Spain in the mid-1860s. First, we trace back its origins to the international crisis of 1864-66. Next, we describe the particular banking sector of Spain, characterized by the coexistence of the Bank of Spain with multiple local banks of issue. We...