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Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive Models
Binder, Michael - 2013
The purpose of the paper is to develop a Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive (RS-GVAR) model. The RS-GVAR model allows for recurring or non-recurring structural changes in all or a subset of countries. It can be used to generate regime-dependent impulse response functions which are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078535
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Bayesian Inference in Cointegrated VAR Models : With Applications to the Demand for Euro Area M3
Warne, Anders - 2021
The paper considers a Bayesian approach to the cointegrated VAR model with a uniform prior on the cointegration space …. Building on earlier work by Villani (2005b), where the posterior probability of the cointegration rank can be calculated … the marginal likelihood identity is used for calculating these probabilities, a point estimator of the cointegration space …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317369
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VAR for VaR : Measuring Tail Dependence Using Multivariate Regression Quantiles
White, Jr., Halbert L. - 2015
This paper proposes methods for estimation and inference in multivariate, multi-quantile models. The theory can simultaneously accommodate models with multiple random variables, multiple confidence levels, and multiple lags of the associated quantiles. The proposed framework can be conveniently...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020592
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Business Cycles, Monetary Transmission and Shocks to Financial Stability : Empirical Evidence from a New Set of Danish Quarterly National Accounts 1948-2010
Abildgren, Kim - 2012
In Denmark official quarterly national accounts are only available for the period since 1977. The paper constructs a set of summary non-seasonally adjusted quarterly national accounts for Denmark for 1948-2010 in current and constant prices as well as a set of other key quarterly macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102102
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Granger-Causal-Priority and Choice of Variables in Vector Autoregressions
Jarocinski, Marek - 2013
A researcher is interested in a set of variables that he wants to model with a vector auto-regression and he has a dataset with more variables. Which variables from the dataset to include in the VAR, in addition to the variables of interest? This question arises in many applications of VARs, in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074480
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How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020
Lenza, Michele - 2020
This paper illustrates how to handle a sequence of extreme observations—such as those recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic—when estimating a Vector Autoregression, which is the most popular time-series model in macroeconomics. Our results show that the ad-hoc strategy of dropping these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824662
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Forecasting and Stress Testing with Quantile Vector Autoregression
Chavleishvili, Sulkhan - 2019
We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859199
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Credit Supply Dynamics and Economic Activity in Euro Area Countries : A Time-Varying Parameter VAR Analysis
Bijsterbosch, Martin - 2014
This paper aims to shed light on the role of credit supply shocks in euro area countries during the recent pre-crisis, bust, and post-crisis periods. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility à la Primiceri (2005) is estimated for each country, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049850
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A New Identification of Fiscal Shocks Based on the Information Flow
Ricco, Giovanni - 2015
Can discretionary increases in government spending stimulate the economy? We answer this question by taking into account both the information flow on fiscal measures and the role played by information frictions. Using a novel set of empirical proxies for fiscal news and agents' misperceptions,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020630
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Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs
Droumaguet, Matthieu - 2015
We derive restrictions for Granger noncausality in Markov-switching vector autoregressive models and also show under which conditions a variable does not affect the forecast of the hidden Markov process. Based on Bayesian approach to evaluating the hypotheses, the computational tools for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020665