A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …

Corporate bond returns in the major developed economies increase with risk, as measured by maturity and ratings. From a …

Corporate bond returns in the major developed economies increase with risk, as measured by maturity and ratings. From a …

expected to appreciate. First, we test the URP assuming that investors are risk neutral and next we relax this hypothesis. The … resulting risk premia are proxied by economic variables, which are related to the business cycle. We employ differentials in …

. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …