Showing 1 - 10 of 258
The purpose of this paper is to study the compensation for inflation risks priced in sovereign bond yields. And we do … for expected and unexpected inflation shocks embedded in sovereign bond yields; and provides estimates of the real risk …-free rate. We show that nominal sovereign bond yields for Germany, France, Japan and the United States, reflect, over the more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830326
In this paper, we study the dynamics and drivers of sovereign bond yields in euro area countries using a factor model … mechanism of bond yields. Our key contribution is exploring both the global and the local dimensions of bond yield determinants … periphery euro area bond yields from the core countries yields following the financial crisis and the scope of their subsequent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963728
subordinated bond yield spreads over senior unsecured bonds, and links the bond yields developments with the characteristics of the … play a key role in explaining bond spreads. Interestingly, after the introduction of the new bail-in framework, there is a … convergence between the bond yields of the GSIBs and the non-GSIBs, which could point out to a reduction in the market perception …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315340
Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830324
This paper analyzes monetary policy in a model with a potential unanchoring of inflation expectations. The degree of unanchoring is given by how sensitively the public’s long-run inflation expectations respond to inflation surprises. I find that optimal policy moves the interest rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079837
In this paper we discuss the role of the cross-sectional heterogeneity of beliefs in the context of understanding and assessing macroeconomic vulnerability. Emphasis lies on the potential of changing levels of disagreement in expectations to influence the propensity of the economy to switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117806
Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324272
Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225751
This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316292
The aim of this study is to assess empirically to what extent the degree of heterogeneity of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations is driven by the flow of information related to current and future price developments in the euro area. We conduct the analysis both on an aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316330