A number of authors have attempted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays...

We study identiÞcation in a class of three-equation monetary models. We argue that these models are typically not identiÞed. For any given exactly identiÞed model, we provide an algorithm that generates a class of equivalent models that have the same reduced form. We use our algorithm to...

We develop a technique for analyzing the response dynamics of economic variables to structural shocks in linear rational expectations models. Our work differs fromstandard SVARs since we allow expectations of future variables to enter structural equations. We show how to estimate the...

We develop a technique for analyzing the response dynamics of economic variables to structural shocks in linear rational expectations models. Our work differs from standard SVARs since we allow expectations of future variables to enter structural equations. We show how to estimate the...

Often, numerical simulations for dynamic, stochastic models in economics are needed. Higher order methods can be attractive, but bear the danger of generating explosive solutions in originally stationary models. Kim-Kim-Schaumburg-Sims (2008) proposed pruning to deal with this challenge for...

Interconnectedness is an inherent feature of the modern financial system. While it contributes to efficiency of financial services, it also creates structural vulnerabilities: pernicious shock transmission and amplification impacting banks' capitalization. This has recently been seen during the...

Often, numerical simulations for dynamic, stochastic models in economics are needed. Higher order methods can be attractive, but bear the danger of generating explosive solutions in originally stationary models. Kim-Kim-Schaumburg-Sims (2008) proposed pruning to deal with this challenge for...

Interconnectedness is an inherent feature of the modern financial system. While it con-tributes to efficiency of financial services, it also creates structural vulnerabilities: pernicious shock transmission and amplification impacting banks’ capitalization. This has recently been seen during...

Exploiting a specific sunspot equilibrium in a standard forward-looking New Keynesian model, we present an example of a possible conflict between short-term price stability and financial stability. We find a conflict because the sunspot process consists of a self-fulfilling belief linking the...

This paper presents a toolkit1 for generating optimal policy projections. It makes five contributions. First, the toolkit requires a minimal set of inputs: only a baseline projection for target and instrument variables and impulse responses of those variables to policy shocks. Second, it solves...