patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

. Our analysis improves upon existing work by endogenising the volatility of both output and inflation. Improved … transparency most likely manifests itself in falling output volatility …

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the role of discretionary fiscal policy for inflation … is difficult to find robust evidence of the fiscal policy stance or impulse impacting directly on inflation differentials …. We do find, however, support for an indirect effect of discretionary fiscal policy on inflation differentials working …

spot prices, although only in the short run. Moreover, financial activity appears to have exacerbated the volatility in the …

time varying parameters and stochastic volatility in which oil supply and global demand shocks are identified. Our results … adverse contributions of both shocks to HICP inflation and GDP in the first half of the sample than in the second, which …

macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate … using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic Volatility (TV-VAR) for the US. The model generates accurate … predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error …

1970s' United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests … that the Bundesbank – which is near-universally credited for sparing West Germany the Great Inflation – would also not have … been able to prevent the Great Inflation in the United States. The sheer implausibility of this result sounds a cautionary …