, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model … much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models … that excessively focused on the global nature of inflation were liable to miss the contribution of deflationary domestic …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

A number of studies document the prominent role of global factors in domestic inflation developments (e.g. Borio and … Filardo, 2007; Ciccarelli and Mojon, 2010). In this paper we investigate global dimensions of advanced economy inflation. We … inflation expectations and augment Phillips curves with global factors including global economic slack, global inflation and …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limiting … attention to a point prediction is not sufficient. The analysis of inflation expectations should take into account inflation …

assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

We jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential …-variation in (i) the data-generation process for inflation, which we capture via a time-varying parameters specification for the … Phillips curve portion of the model; and (ii) the volatilities of disturbances to inflation and cyclical(log) output, which we …