for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons …

Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the … euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large set of determinants, is competitive with state-of-the-art linear … ECB point inflation forecasts, displaying similar deviations from “linearity”. Given that the ECB modelling toolbox is …

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation … inflation with the ability of quantile regression to model flexibly the whole distribution of inflation. In order to make our …-based indicators for the prediction of the conditional distribution of inflation in the euro area, both in the short and longer run …

In this paper we explore the link between the intensity of product market competition and inflation rates across EU … countries and sectors. We consider long-term averages of inflation rates in order to remove the cyclical behavior of inflation … product market competition, as proxied by the level of mark-up in particular, is an important driver of inflation …

estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying parameters. We use this method to study the time-varying relationship …

are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …

relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New … stability, a few years where inflation was driven mainly by external shocks, and the financial crisis, where the New Keynesian … expectations on inflation and a resurgence of the 'sacrifice ratio' …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

This paper proposes methods for estimation and inference in multivariate, multi-quantile models. The theory can …