Showing 1 - 10 of 1,294
In this paper, we assess whether and to what extent financial activity in the oil futures markets has contributed to … destabilize oil prices in recent years. We define a destabilizing financial shock as a shift in oil prices that is not related to … current and expected fundamentals, and thereby distorts efficient pricing in the oil market. Using a structural VAR model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124900
production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times …This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065408
implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on … fluctuations in oil prices, which have left unexplained by a simpler model (where strategic interactions are not taken into account …). Price Targeting shocks, ignored by previous studies, explain around 10 percent of oil price fluctuations and are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842744
Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC and Russia (known as OPEC+) cut oil … production in an attempt to raise the price of crude oil. In March 2020 the corona virus shock led to a collapse of this … coalition, as members did not agree on keeping the oil market tight in the face of a large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823322
relevant in driving real oil prices, and had less of an effect on US inflation than demand shocks. Overall, the effects of oil …This paper studies oil market and other macroeconomic shocks in a structural vector autoregression with sign … restrictions. It introduces a new indicator for oil demand, and uniquely, performs a sign restriction set-up with a penalty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315918
This paper takes a financial market perspective in examining the relationship between oil prices, the US dollar and … bidirectional causality between the US dollar and oil prices since the early 2000s. Moreover, both oil prices and the US dollar are … significantly affected by changes in equity market returns and risk. By contrast, oil prices did not react to changes in these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053415
We present a general equilibrium model of the global oil market, in which the oil price, oil production, and … consumption, are jointly determined as outcomes of the optimizing decisions of oil importers and oil exporters. On the supply side … the oil market is modeled as a dominant firm – Saudi Aramco – with competitive fringe. We establish that a dominant firm …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124255
This paper demonstrates how the real-time forecasting accuracy of different Brent oil price forecast models changes … propose a forecast combination approach to predict quarterly real Brent oil prices. A four-model combination (consisting of … futures, risk-adjusted futures, a Bayesian VAR and a DGSE model of the oil market) predicts Brent oil prices more accurately …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013032606
democracy. In addition, public deficit volatility tends to be magnified for small countries, in the outcome of hyper-inflation …This paper empirically analyzes the political, institutional and economic sources of public deficit volatility. Using … show that higher public deficit volatility is typically associated with higher levels of political instability and less …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764289
patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012931102