We present a general equilibrium model of the global oil market, in which the oil price, oil production, and … consumption, are jointly determined as outcomes of the optimizing decisions of oil importers and oil exporters. On the supply side … the oil market is modeled as a dominant firm – Saudi Aramco – with competitive fringe. We establish that a dominant firm …

implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on … fluctuations in oil prices, which have left unexplained by a simpler model (where strategic interactions are not taken into account …). Price Targeting shocks, ignored by previous studies, explain around 10 percent of oil price fluctuations and are …

Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC and Russia (known as OPEC+) cut oil … production in an attempt to raise the price of crude oil. In March 2020 the corona virus shock led to a collapse of this … coalition, as members did not agree on keeping the oil market tight in the face of a large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC …

relevant in driving real oil prices, and had less of an effect on US inflation than demand shocks. Overall, the effects of oil …This paper studies oil market and other macroeconomic shocks in a structural vector autoregression with sign … restrictions. It introduces a new indicator for oil demand, and uniquely, performs a sign restriction set-up with a penalty …

Inflation volatility is clearly important for structural analysis, forecasting and policy purposes, yet it is often … overlooked in the literature. This paper compares inflation volatility among advanced open economies with inflation targeting …, the volatility of inflation was similar among countries, even when controlling for monetary policy activity and other …

In this paper, we assess whether and to what extent financial activity in the oil futures markets has contributed to … destabilize oil prices in recent years. We define a destabilizing financial shock as a shift in oil prices that is not related to … current and expected fundamentals, and thereby distorts efficient pricing in the oil market. Using a structural VAR model …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a …

This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent … assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer …

oil and food price shocks transmit to the inflationary outlook and the real economy. In this paper, we try to tackle this … issue by means of a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. We first examine the short-run inflationary effects of oil … and food price shocks on a given set of countries. Secondly, we assess the importance of inflation linkages among …