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Bayesian approaches to the estimation of DSGE models are becoming increasingly popular. Prior knowledge is normally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316112
Even when the policy rate is not at the effective lower bound (ELB), the possibility that the policy rate will become constrained by the ELB in the future lowers today's inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation. In an empirically rich model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988551
-founded macroeconometric frame-work. First, using Bayesian techniques, we estimate a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772411
(CCyB) rules in small open economy estimated medium scale DSGE. We find that rules based on the credit gap create a trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921203
We show how to use a simple perturbation method to solve non-linear rational expectation models. Drawing from the applied mathematics literature we propose a method consisting of series expansions of the non-linear system around a known solution. The variables are represented in terms of their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136525
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … nonstructural benchmarks, such as Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs). Overall, the empirical evidence indicates that the NAWM …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144596
What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956242
aggregate. The impulse responses show that a positive shock to foreign liquidity leads for the euro area to a permanent increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319486
In view of the increasing use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in the macroeconomic projections … within DSGE models. Furthermore, it provides historical estimates of potential output/output gaps on the basis of selected … DSGE models developed by the European System of Central Banks' staff. These estimates are compared to the corresponding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124588
depends on the shock considered). Nevertheless, although in addition the model with financial frictions better describes Euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013145340