curve in a Markov-switching panel setting with time-varying transition probabilities for the US, Portugal and Spain using …

-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …

relationship between NPL problems-elevated and unresolved NPLs-and the severity of post-crisis recessions. A machine learning …

current business cycle phase and of foreign recessions on the likelihood that expansions and recessions come to an end. With … to recessions in a G7 country, we find that the likelihood of them coming to an end is not affected by other G7 countries …' recessions. We find duration dependence of recessions for all G7 countries, i.e. recessions that have gone on for a while are …