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Forecasting world trade: direct versus “bottom-up” approaches
Burgert, Matthias; Dées, Stéphane - 2008
from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604928
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Forecasting the world economy in the short-term
Jakaitiene, Audrone; Dées, Stéphane - 2009
forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605105
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Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new member states of the European Union
Banerjee, Anindya; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Masten, Igor - 2005
The accession of ten countries into the European Union makes the forecasting of their key macroeconomic indicators an exercise of some importance. Because of the transition period, only short spans of reliable time series are available, suggesting the adoption of simple time series models as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604528
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Forecasting the World Economy in the Short-Term
Jakaitiene, Audrone - 2009
-specific forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … outperform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted to match … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159358
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Forecasting World Trade : Direct versus 'Bottom-Up' Approaches
Dees, Stephane - 2013
results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753643
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How you export matters: the disassortative structure of international trade
Joseph, Andreas; Osbat, Chiara - 2016
The local network structure of international trade relations offers a new dimension for understanding a country’s competitive position vis-á-vis its trade partners and competitors, supporting economic policy analysis. We introduce two network measures that can be used to analyse comparative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606003
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How You Export Matters : The Disassortative Structure of International Trade
Joseph, Andreas - 2016
The local network structure of international trade relations offers a new dimension for understanding a country's competitive position vis-á-vis its trade partners and competitors, supporting economic policy analysis. We introduce two network measures that can be used to analyse comparative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983077
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Monetary policy with judgment: forecast targeting
Svensson, Lars E. O. - 2005
“Forecast targeting,” forward-looking monetary policy that uses central-bank judgment to construct optimal policy projections of the target variables and the instrument rate, may perform substantially better than monetary policy that disregards judgment and follows a given instrument rule....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604522
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Credit spreads, economic activity and fragmentation
De Santis, Roberto - 2016
Credit spreads may be jointly driven by developments that are orthogonal to the current state of the economy. We show that this unobserved systematic component is demanded to hedge against adverse economic fl?uctuations. Using either yield-to-maturity spreads or asset swap spreads for 2345...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605975
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Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area
Dieppe, Alistair; Warmedinger, Thomas - 2007
The paper proposes a modelling approach for euro area goods and services trade volumes and prices on the basis of a break-down of trade data into their intra- and extra-area components. Using the evidence from the newly estimated trade equations, the paper gives new insights into two important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604806