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Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models

Godbout, Claudia; Lombardi, Marco J. - 2012

While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605473

Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data

Rünstler, Gerhard; Sédillot, Franck - 2003

The first official data releases of quarterly real GDP for the euro area are published about eight weeks after the end of the reference quarters. Meanwhile, ongoing economic developments must be assessed from various, more readily available, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604322

Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

Diron, Marie - 2006

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668

Early estimates of euro area real GDP growth: a bottom up approach from the production side

Hahn, Elke; Skudelny, Frauke - 2008

This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the literature. Linear regression models in the form of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021

Now-casting and the real-time data flow

Bańbura, Marta; Giannone, Domenico; Modugno, Michele; … - 2013

The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and … recently also in economics. In this paper we survey recent developments in economic now-casting with special focus on those …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605609

Nowcasting employment in the euro area

Bańbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023

Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374691

Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model

Angelini, Elena; Bańbura, Marta; Rünstler, Gerhard - 2008

We estimate and forecast growth in euro area monthly GDP and its components from a dynamic factor model due to Doz et al. (2005), which handles unbalanced data sets in an efficient way. We extend the model to integrate interpolation and forecasting together with cross-equation accounting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604999

Nowcasting

Bańbura, Marta; Giannone, Domenico; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2010

We define nowcasting as the prediction of the present, the very near future and the very recent past. Crucial in this … collected at low frequency and published with long delays. Until recently, nowcasting had received very little attention by the … basis of simple models. We argue that the nowcasting process goes beyond the simple production of an early estimate as it …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605321

Nowcasting world trade with machine learning: A three-step approach

Chinn, Menzie David; Meunier, Baptiste; Stumpner, Sebastian - 2023

We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, linear gradient boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374780

Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning : A Three-Step Approach

Chinn, Menzie David; Meunier, Baptiste; Stumpner, Sebastian - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352801