In this paper, we hypothesize that the strength of the consensus effect, i.e., the tendency for people to overweight the prevalence of their own values and preferences when forming beliefs about others' values and preferences, depends on the salience of own preferences. We manipulate salience by...

We study how contingent thinking - that is, reasoning through all possible contingencies without knowing which is realized - affects belief updating. According to the Bayesian benchmark, beliefs updated after exposure to new information should be equivalent to beliefs assessed for the...

Agents undertaking economic decisions are exposed to an ever-increasing amount of information sources. This paper investigates how the number of available information sources impacts agents' ability to (i) select reliable sources and (ii) use their content effectively to update their beliefs. To...

We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...

We provide evidence on the dynamics, drivers, and consequences of attention to the macroeconomy using tailored panel surveys of German firms and households. Draw-ing on novel measures of attention based on open-ended questions collected before and during a historic shock to inflation, we...

Investors’ return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents’ mental models – their subjective understanding – of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US...

We study people’s subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their at-tentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment and inflation, providing respondents with identical information about the parameters of the shocks...

In a large-scale online experiment with U.S. Democrats, we examine how the demand for a newsletter about an economic relief plan changes when the newsletter content is fact-checked. We first document an overall muted demand for factchecking when the newsletter features stories from an...