People often form mental models based on incomplete information, revising them as new relevant data becomes available. In this paper, we experimentally investigate how individuals update their models when data on predictive variables are gradually revealed. We find that people's models tend to...

We study response behavior in surveys and show how the explanatory power of selfreports can be improved. First, we develop a choice model of survey response behavior under the assumption that the respondent has imperfect self-knowledge about her individual characteristics. In panel data, the...

Observed individual behavior in the presence of ambiguity is characterized by insufficient responsiveness to changes in subjective likelihoods. Such likelihood insensitivity under ambiguity is integral to theoretical models and predictive of behavior in many important domains such as financial...

Overconfidence is one of the most ubiquitous cognitive bias. There is copious evidence of overconfidence being relevant in a diverse set of economic domains. In this paper, we relate the recent concept of cognitive uncertainty with overconfidence. Cognitive uncertainty represents a decision...

This study investigates how salary differences, gender stereotypes and prior leadership experience influence the willingness to pursue leadership roles. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, I focus on communication and coordination responsibilities of leaders. In the experiment, subjects...

How people recall the SARS-CoV2 pandemic is likely to prove crucial in future societal debates on pandemic preparedness and appropriate political action. Beyond simple forgetting, previous research suggests that recall may be distorted by strong motivations and anchoring perceptions on the...

We study how contingent thinking - that is, reasoning through all possible contingencies without knowing which is realized - affects belief updating. According to the Bayesian benchmark, beliefs updated after exposure to new information should be equivalent to beliefs assessed for the...

Agents undertaking economic decisions are exposed to an ever-increasing amount of information sources. This paper investigates how the number of available information sources impacts agents' ability to (i) select reliable sources and (ii) use their content effectively to update their beliefs. To...

In this paper, we hypothesize that the strength of the consensus effect, i.e., the tendency for people to overweight the prevalence of their own values and preferences when forming beliefs about others' values and preferences, depends on the salience of own preferences. We manipulate salience by...

We investigate dynamically inconsistent time preferences across contexts with and without interpersonal trade-offs. In a longitudinal experiment participants make a series of intertemporal allocation decisions of real-effort tasks between themselves and another person. Our results reveal that...