Economic theory, as well as empirical findings, suggest that the way in which agricultural support is provided has an influence on land markets, because payments capitalise to some degree into land values, affecting both the sale and rental price of land. The present paper analyses how the...

This study investigates the impact of the SAPS (Simplified Area Payment Scheme) on rental land values in seven New EU Member States (NMS). Using the FADN farm level panel data with 20,930 observations from 2004 and 2005 we are able to control for unobserved heterogeneity, simultaneity, and...

In this paper we estimate the income distributional effects of the common agricultural policy (CAP) for farmers and landowners. First, we theoretically analyse the level of farmers' and landowners' gains from coupled and decoupled payments. Second, using a unique farm level panel data set from...

Economic theory, as well as empirical findings, suggest that the way in which agricultural support is provided has an influence on land markets, because payments capitalise to some degree into land values, affecting both the sale and rental price of land. The present paper analyses how the...

Decoupled direct payments were introduced in the EU in form of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) in 2005. The 2013 CAP reform changed both the implementation of the SPS and its budget. We assess the possible effects of the 2013 CAP reform on EU land markets; in particular the capitalization of the...

This paper makes two contributions. First, we outline a simple simulation based framework for constructing conditional distributions for multi-factor and multi-dimensional diffusion processes, for the case where the functional form of the conditional density is unknown. The distributions can be...

Our objectives in this paper are twofold. First, we introduce block bootstrap techniques that are (first order) valid in recursive estimation frameworks. Thereafter, we present two examples where predictive accuracy tests are made operational using our new bootstrap procedures. In one...

In this chapter we discuss model selection and predictive accuracy tests in the context of parameter and model uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap...

This chapter discusses estimation, specification testing, and model selection of predictive density models. In particular, predictive density estimation is briefly discussed, and a variety of different specification and model evaluation tests due to various authors including Christoffersen and...

Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast...