Classical regression analysis uses partial coefficients to measure the influences of some variables (regressors) on another variable (regressand). However, a descriptive point of view shows that these coefficients are very bad measures of influence. Their interpretation as an average change of...

This paper constructs the probability space underlying the random variable of any time dependent econometric specification. The construction links concrete economic activity, both perceived and recorded, and econometric formulations. Furthermore, it is argued that the probability events...

Explained variance (R^2) is a familiar summary of the fit of a linear regression and has been generalized in various ways to multilevel (hierarchical) models. The multilevel models we consider in this paper are characterized by hierarchical data structures in which individuals are grouped into...

Various noninformative prior distributions have been suggested for scale parameters in hierarchical models. We construct a new folded-noncentral- t family of conditionally conjugate priors for hierarchical standard deviation parameters, and then consider noninformative and weakly informative...

Based on the Partial Distribution (Feng Dai, 2001), a new model to price an asset (MPA) is given. Going a step further, this paper puts forward the Multivariate Partial Distribution (MPD) for the first time. By use of MPD, we could gain a new kind of model for pricing the group assets (MPGA), in...

In this paper, the Partial Distribution (PD) and multivariate Partial Distribution (MPD) are presented in their concepts, properties and applications, and PD is compared with the lognormal and the levy distribution. Though the levy distribution is better to describe the exchange returns in...

Futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange are the most liquid instruments for trading crude oil, which is the world’s most actively traded physical commodity. Under normal market conditions, traders can easily find counterparties for their trades, resulting in an efficient market...