In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different datasets that cannot be matched....

This paper concerns the uniform inference for nonparametric series estimators in time-series applications. We develop a strong approximation theory of sample averages of serially dependent random vectors with dimensions growing with the sample size. The strong approximation is first proved for...

Is there a gap between the profitability of a trading strategy “on paper” and that which is achieved in practice? We answer this question by developing a general technique to measure the real-world implementation costs of financial market anomalies. Our method extends Fama-MacBeth...