In the US, the negative consequences of increased trade with China, and of globalisation in general, have been associated with a turn towards populism and ultimately the election of Donald Trump as president in November 2016.

Summary A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable...

Summary Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as...

Recent price developments in the euro area demonstrate that deflation is a serious issue of concern. Some euro area countries are already facing a deflation in the usual macroeconomic sense of a 'general price decline'. This article discusses the economic consequences of deflation and suggests...