All practical evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and that has been taken into account in some studies by using stochastic population projections jointly with...

The earnings-related pension system is partially pre-funded in Finland and has currently large reserves. This has roused debate whether the pension funds should take a more active role in promoting employment, growth and domestic ownership of the firms. We analyse the justifications presented...

This study analyses financial sustainability of the Finnish public sector. Current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue for financing public expenditure under an ageing population. The estimate of the sustainability gap is 2 1/2 per cent of GDP, for the period 2010 - 2060. The...

We study old age care expenditures and means to prepare for them. The expected size of the expenditures is described both from the point of view of individuals and the municipalities who provide the services. We use a numerical stochastic life cycle model to research how much various individuals...

This study analyzes the sustainability implications of demographic and investment risks in the Finnish private sector pension system (TyEL). The results show that current contribution rate is likely to be too low to finance the future higher expenditure. The main sustainability problem is not,...