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Deeper, wider and more competitive? : monetary integration, Eastern enlargement and competitiveness in the European Union
Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P. (contributor);  … - 2007
firms? And in the European context, have key elements of the EU strategy such as EMU and enlargement helped or hindered … located in participating economies. Enlargement has, instead, two contrasting effects. It improves the accessibility of EU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003635984
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Institutionalization of imported rules in the European Union's new member states : bringing politics back in the research agenda
Dimitrova, Antoaneta (contributor) - 2007
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003647555
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Flow on conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity
Heinisch, Katja (contributor); Maurin, Laurent (contributor) - 2008
Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003789413
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The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production : perspective from large panel factor models
Darracq Pariès, Matthieu (contributor);  … - 2008
Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro areamanufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset selection on the empirical performance of factor models. First,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778786
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The Maastricht convergence criteria and optimal monetary policy for the EMU accession Countries
Lipińska, Anna (contributor) - 2008
The EMU accession countries are obliged to fulfill the Maastrich convergence criteria prior to entering the EMU. This paper uses a DSGE model of a two-sector small open economy, to address the following question: How do the Maastricht convergence criteria modify optimal monetary policy in an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778818
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Fiscal and monetary policy in the enlarged European Union (forthcoming)
Pogorelec, Sabina (contributor) - 2006
I build a quantitative two-country DSGE model of the European Union (EU) and investigate whether there are welfare … gains from fiscal policy cooperation between the new EU members and the euro area (EMU). Fiscal cooperation is defined in … firms in the new EU countries. When there is no foreign ownership in the new EU countries, the euro area is indifferent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003358603
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Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates
Hendry, David F. (contributor); Hubrich, Kirstin (contributor) - 2006
We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003280663
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Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe?
Pedregal, Diego J. (contributor);  … - 2008
We use a newly available dataset of euro area quarterly national accounts fiscal data and construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the government deficit, revenue and expenditure in order to assess its information content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003790942
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Short-term forecasts of euro area GDP growth
Angelini, Elena; Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo; Giannone, Domenico - 2008
This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794044
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Is forecasting with large models informative? : assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts
Mestre, Ricardo; McAdam, Peter - 2008
We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794046