In this paper I confess the following sin: I deliberately complicated a piece of research to advance its prospects of being published.

We examine the relative improvement in forecasting accuracy of the Federal Reserve (Greenbook forecasts) and private-sector forecasts (the Survey of Professional Forecasters and Blue Chip Economic Indicators)for inflation. Previous research by Romer and Romer [Romer, Christina, David, Romer,...

This paper estimates the contribution of aggregate demand and supply shocks to economic fluctuations. Following Blanchard and Quah we estimate a vector autoregression with long-run restrictions to identify structural demand and supply shocks. We investigate the effects of temporal aggregation on...