This article proposes a modified method for the construction of diffusion indexes in macroeconomic forecasting using principal component regres- sion. The method aims to maximize the amount of variance of the origi- nal predictor variables retained by the diffusion indexes, by matching the data...

The aim of this thesis is to model the dynamics of international term structure of interest rates taking into consideration several dependence channels.Thanks to a new international Treasury yield curve database, we observe that the explained variability decision criterion, suggested by the...