Showing 1 - 10 of 32
account of them in estimating and forecasting IV. This paper investigates through Monte Carlo simulations the effects of RV … errors on estimating and forecasting IV with RV data. It is found that: (i) neglecting RV errors can lead to serious bias in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010732608
This chapter deals with forecasting sales (in units or money), where an explicit distinction is made between sales of … forecasting amounts to a combination of statistical modeling and an expert’s touch. Models for durable goods sales are usually …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731637
We study the diffusion of original and counterfeit products in three distinct categories in a developing country. The … focus is on when their diffusion processes peak, how sales of original and counterfeit products are related and how …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731780
When payoffs from different actions are unknown, agents use their own past experience as well as the experience of their neighbors to guide their current decision making. This paper develops a general framework to study the relationship between the structure of information flows and the process...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731823
__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects … for forecasting weekly and monthly horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011274348
installed based information and provide several ways in which installed base forecasting can be used. We discuss cases of … installed based forecasting at four companies and list the issues involved. Moreover, we provide some models to assess the value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837719
Forecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837733
Experts may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve forecasts. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional mean of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837737
-of-sample forecasting exercise to study money-income Granger causality, both linear and nonlinear, we believe is new to the literature. The … forecasting results do not suggest that money is nonlinearly Granger causal for output. In fact, they show that by allowing money … to nonlinearly Granger cause output, the forecasting performance of the STVECM is significantly worsened. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837854
(p) model for all forecast horizons and different AR models for different horizons. Representation, estimation and forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837899