This paper raises some interpretative issues that arise from univariate trend-cycle decompositions with correlated disturbances. In particular, it discusses whether the interpretation of a negative correlation as providing evidence for the prominence of real, or supply, shocks, can be supported....

The article explores and illustrates some of the typical trade-offs which arise in designing filters for the measurement of trends and cycles in economic time series, focusing, in particular, on the fundamental trade-off between the reliability of the estimates and the magnitude of the revisions...