Rational beliefs (in the form of WAMS measures) are expectations which though consistent with empirical observations, may deviate from the true underlying probability measure under which data is generated.We provide results on, as well as a decomposition of, WAMS measures and use this to...

In this paper a public bureau can extract surplus value from the services it provides not only by misrepresenting its production costs to its oversight committee but also by influencing the perceptions of the legislative body such as the parliament or the congress and the public at large by...

This paper examines firms' incentive to make irreversible investments under an open access policy with stochastically growing demand. Using a simple model, we derive an access-to-bypass equilibrium. Analysis of the equilibrium confirms that the introduction of competition in network industries...

This paper develops concordance indices for studying the simultaneous occurrence of financial crises across markets and/or countries. The typically low incidence of financial crises necessitates a change in the definition of concordance from those recently developed for the business cycle...

A Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) with normally distributed innovations is a Curved Exponential Model (CEM). Cointegration imposes further curvature on the model and this means that in addition to the important reasons for conditioning in non-stationary time series as given by Johansen (1995,...

This paper investigates whether there is a non-linear relationship between income and the private transfers received by households in developing countries. If private transfers are unresponsive to household income, expansion of public social security is unlikely to crowd out private transfers,...

This paper presents results for four separately estimated sets of discrete choice labour supply models using the Household Economic Surveys from 1991/92 up to 2000/01. The New Zealand working-age population is divided into sole parents, single men, single women, and couples. The labour supply...

In this paper we investigate the principal-multi agent relationship with moral hazard where a risk neutral principal contracts with multiple risk averse agents whose actions are unobservable to the principal. We show that the well--known trade--off between incentive and risk sharing can be...

A quadratic function is frequently used in regression to infer the existence of an extremum in a relationship. Examples abound in fields such as economics, epidemiology and environmental science. However, most applications provide no formal test of the extremum. Here we compare the Delta method...

We propose a general non-linear simultaneous equations framework for the econometric analysis of models of intervention in foreign exchange markets by central banks in response to deviations of exchange rates from possibly time-varying target levels. We consider efficient estimation of possibly...