This paper analyzes the application of the Markov-switching ARCH model (Hamilton and Susmel, 1994) in improving value-at-risk (VaR) forecast. By considering a mixture of normal distributions with varying variances over different time and regimes, we find that the “spurious high...

Consider a multilateral bargaining problem where negotiation is conducted by a sequence of bilateral bargaining sessions. We are interested in an environment where bargaining protocols are determined endogenously. During each bilateral bargaining session of Rubinstein (1982), two players...

In this paper we compare the size and the power of four cointegration tests in heterogeneous panel data, with both varying intercepts and slopes. These tests are (i) Kao (1999) Tests (both Dickey-Fuller (DF) and augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) types of cointegration tests in panel data), (ii)...

In previous research, I find that a reduction of the cost-of-living adjustment has performed quite well in comparisons among different Social Security reform proposals. While a COLA reduction contains many positive features, there is some concern that it would push the most vulnerable members of...

This paper assesses the effects of agency costs and asymmetric information in credit markets. Asymmetric information and agency costs occur whenever lenders delegate control over resources to borrowers, leading to adverse selection, moral hazard and monitoring costs because of the inability to...

This paper first show that South Korea's industrial targeting in the name of heavy and chemical industry drive in the 1970s managed to produce industries with international competitiveness over time. It then performs ex post cost-benefit analysis to show that industrial targeting in Korea has...

A new class of specification tests is proposed to detect for neglected nonlinearity and dynamic misspecification in panel models. The tests can detect a wide range of model misspecifications while being robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and higher order time-varying moments of unknown...

From 1863-1914, banks in the U.S. could issue notes subject to full collateral, a per-period tax on outstanding notes, redemption of notes on demand, and a clearing fee per issued note cleared through the Treasury. The system failed to satisfy a purported arbitrage condition; i.e., the yield on...

Economic models often imply that certain variables are cointegrated. However, tests often fail to reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration for these variables. One possible explanation of these test results is that the error is unit root nonstationary due to a nonstationary measurement...

Many securities are, to a certain extent, subject to credit risk in one way or another. Both the financial institutions and regulators are keen to have their credit risk exposures well managed. In order to fulfill their needs, the market for credit derivatives has become one of the fast growing...