We investigate the marginal predictive content of small versus large jump variation, when forecasting one-week-ahead cross-sectional equity returns, building on Bollerslev et al. (2020). We find that sorting on signed small jump variation leads to greater value-weighted return differentials...

Numerous tests designed to detect realized jumps over a fixed time span have been proposed and extensively studied in the financial econometrics literature. These tests differ from “long time span tests” that detect jumps by examining the magnitude of the jump intensity parameter in the data...

This paper analyzes conditions under which various k-class estimators are asymptotically normal in a simultaneous equations framework with many weak instruments. In particular, our paper extends the many instruments asymptotic normality results obtained by Morimune (1983), Bekker (1994), Angrist...

In this paper, the authors empirically assess the extent to which early release inefficiency and definitional change affect prediction precision. In particular, they carry out a series of ex-ante prediction experiments in order to examine: the marginal predictive content of the revision process,...

This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, the authors first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models....

In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We...

In real time forecasting, the sample is usually split into an estimation period of R observations and a prediction period of P observations, where T=R+P. Parameters are often estimated in a recursive manner, initially using R observations, then R+1 observations and so on until T-1 observations...