This paper analyzes conditions under which various k-class estimators are asymptotically normal in a simultaneous equations framework with many weak instruments. In particular, our paper extends the many instruments asymptotic normality results obtained by Morimune (1983), Bekker (1994), Angrist...

In this paper, the authors empirically assess the extent to which early release inefficiency and definitional change affect prediction precision. In particular, they carry out a series of ex-ante prediction experiments in order to examine: the marginal predictive content of the revision process,...

This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, the authors first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models....

In real time forecasting, the sample is usually split into an estimation period of R observations and a prediction period of P observations, where T=R+P. Parameters are often estimated in a recursive manner, initially using R observations, then R+1 observations and so on until T-1 observations...

In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We...

These essays by Clive W. J. Granger span more than four decades and cover major topics in spectral analysis, seasonality, nonlinearity, methodology, and forecasting. The introduction by Eric Gysels, Norman R. Swanson and Mark W. Watson places the essays in context and demonstrates their enduring...

These essays by Clive W. J. Granger span more than four decades and cover major topics in causality, integration, cointegration, and long memory. The introduction by Eric Gysels, Norman R. Swanson, and Mark W. Watson places the essays in context and demonstrates their enduring value