A probability distribution governing the evolution of a stochastic process has infinitely many Bayesian representations of the form mu = integral operator [subscript theta] mu[subscript theta] delta lambda (theta). Among these, a natural representation is one whose components (mu[subscript...

I study individuals who use frequentist models to draw uniform inferences from independent and identically distributed data. The main contribution of this paper is to show that distinct models may be consistent with empirical evidence, even in the limit when data increases without bound....

We show that a simple "reputation-style" test can always identify which of two experts is informed about the true distribution. The test presumes no prior knowledge of the true distribution, achieves any desired degree of precision in some fixed finite time, and does not use "counterfactual"...