We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is very spread among many models suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results...

We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a...

We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is very spread among many models suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results...

This paper explores the relevance of asymmetry and long memory in modeling and forecasting the conditional volatility and market risk of four widely traded commodities (crude oil, natural gas, gold, and silver). A broad set of the most popular linear and nonlinear GARCH-type models is used to...

This paper provides a Bayesian analysis of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) models. We discuss in detail inference on impulse responses, and show how Bayesian methods can be used to (i) test ARFIMA models against ARIMA alternatives, and (ii) take model uncertainty...

This paper examines risk transmission and migration among six US measures of credit and market risk during the full period 2004–2011 period and the 2009–2011 recovery subperiod, with a focus on four sectors related to the highly volatile oil price. There are more long-run equilibrium risk...