The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation are substantially revised versions of the papers that were presented at the 2011 Madrid International Conference on “Risk Modelling and Management” (RMM2011). The papers cover the following topics: currency hedging...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates an expert's touch,...

A government's ability to forecast key economic fundamentals accurately can affect business confidence, consumer sentiment, and foreign direct investment, among others. A government forecast based on an econometric model is replicable, whereas one that is not fully based on an econometric model...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...

It is well known that the Basel II Accord requires banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) to communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models, whether individually or as...

The Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of...

Many macro-economic forecasts and forecast updates, such as those from the IMF and OECD, typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition (namely, expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster), which is non-replicable. . Learning from previous mistakes can affect...

It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current revisions on one-period lagged revisions. Under weak-form efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The empirical findings in the...

An early development in testing for causality (technically, Granger non-causality) in the conditional variance (or volatility) associated with financial returns was the portmanteau statistic for non-causality in the variance of Cheng and Ng (1996). A subsequent development was the Lagrange...

This paper estimates a long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat, rubber, and...