Many macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast...

An early development in testing for causality (technically, Granger non-causality) in the conditional variance (or volatility) associated with financial returns was the portmanteau statistic for non-causality in the variance of Cheng and Ng (1996). A subsequent development was the Lagrange...

The paper examines the effectiveness of the price stabilization mechanism for the broiler and poultry industry in Taiwan during the period 1999 to 2008. After presenting some background information on the domestic marketing system and price stabilization mechanisms for the broiler and pork...

This paper examines the inter-relationships among gold prices in five global gold markets, namely London, New York, Japan, Hong Kong (since 1 July 1997, a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China), and Taiwan. We investigate the linkages between Taiwan and the other global gold markets to...

This paper investigates the volatility size effects for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry, especially the impacts arising from the tourism policy reform that allowed mainland Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Four conditional univariate GARCH models are used to estimate the...