We examine the relationship between consistent parameter estimation and model selection for autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects. We find that the transformation of fixed effects proposed by Lancaster (2002) does not necessarily lead to consistent estimation of common parameters...

This paper deals with the issue of modeling daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We have data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the North Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to...

This paper develops a Bayesian vector autoregressive model(BVAR) for the leader of the Portuguese car market to forecast the market share. The model includes five marketing decision variables.The Bayesian prior is selected on the basis of the accuracy of the out-of-sample forecasts. We find that...

This paper extends the analogy previously established by Leamer (1978a), between a Bayesian inference problem and an economics allocation problem, and shows that posterior modes can be interpreted as optimal outcomes of a bargaining game. This bargaining game, over a parameter value, is played...

This paper is concerned with statistical inference in multinomial probit, multinomial-$t$ and multinomial logit models. New Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for fitting these models are introduced and compared with existing MCMC methods. The question of parameter identification in the...

Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms within the limited information Bayesian framework, we estimate the parameters of the structural equation of interest and test weak exogeneity in a simultaneous equation model with white noise as well as autocorrelated error terms. A numerical example and...

We consider a Bayesian implementation of a new approach to estimating Demand Systems. This approach, suggested by Varian (1990), is based on a generalization of Afriat's (1967) efficiency index. The model we propose leads to a very tractable posterior and predictive analysis, yet allows for...

This paper describes a new method for assigning letter grades to students based on their raw scores, which I call Multi-Curve Grading (MCG). The intuition behind the method is that a class can be composed of several different subgroups, each of which should be assigned a different grade. In...

A vital implication of unemployment persistence applies to the Bank of Canada's disinflation policies since it adversely influences unemployment and considerably lengthens recessions. This paper tests for persistence in Canadian sectoral unemployment, using the modified rescaled-range test. Our...