In this paper we consider the problem of making inference on a structural parameter in instrumental variables regression when the instruments are only weakly correlated with the endogenous explanatory variables. Adopting a local-to-zero assumption as in Staiger and Stock (1994) on the...

We consider mean-reverting stochastic processes and build a self- consistent model for forward price dynamics and their applications in power industries. This model with stochastic volatility of the forward price is built using the ideas and equations of stochastic differential geometry in order...

There are three crucial mathematical system concepts in Finance, which are either being confused or misapplied - uncertainty, complexity and rank. First, the concept of epistemic uncertainty is sufficient for modeling and the concept of probability is unnecessary. This is illustrated by...

We study the finite-sample properties of tests for overidentifying restrictions in linear regression models with a single endogenous regressor and weak instruments. Under the assumption of Gaussian disturbances, we derive expressions for a variety of test statistics as functions of eight...

In this paper, we propose methods of the determination of the rank of matrix. We consider a rank test for an unobserved matrix for which an estimate exists having normal asymptotic distribution of order N1/2 where N is the sample size. The test statistic is based on the smallest estimated...

We investigate confidence intervals and inference for the instrumental variables model with weak instruments. Wald-based confidence intervals perform poorly in that the probability they reject the null is far greater than their nominal size. In the worst case, Wald-based confidence intervals...

In this paper, we develop methods of the determination of the rank of random matrix. Using the matrix perturbation theory to construct or find a suitable bases of the kernel (null space) of the matrix and to determine the limiting distribution of the estimator of the smallest singular values. We...

It is now well known that standard asymptotic inference techniques for instrumental variable estimation perform very poorly in the presence of weak instruments. Specifically, standard asymptotic techniques give spuriously small standard errors, leading investigators to accept apparently tight...

This paper proposes a class of partial cointegrated models allowing for structural breaks in the deterministic terms. Moving-average representations of the models are given. It is then shown that, under the assumption of martingale difference innovations, the limit distributions of partial...

A standard test for weak instruments compares the first-stage F-statistic to a table of critical values obtained by Stock and Yogo (2005) using simulations. We derive a closed-form solution for the expectation from which these critical values are derived, as well as present some second-order...