Filtering has had a profound impact as a device of perceiving information and deriving agent expectations in dynamic economic models. For an abstract economic system, this paper shows that the foundation of applying the filtering method corresponds to the existence of a conditional expectation...

In this paper, we investigate several variable selection procedures to give an overview of the existing literature for practitioners. 'Let the data speak for themselves' has become the motto of many applied researchers since the number of data has significantly grown. Automatic model selection...

A specific concept of structural model is used as a background for discussing the structurality of its parameterization. Conditions for a structural model to be also causal are examined. Difficulties and pitfalls arising from the parameterization are analyzed. In particular, pitfalls when...

This paper proposes a class of partial cointegrated models allowing for structural breaks in the deterministic terms. Moving-average representations of the models are given. It is then shown that, under the assumption of martingale difference innovations, the limit distributions of partial...

This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of...

White's (1984) concept of asymptotic variance is shown to allow some ambiguities when used to study asymptotic efficiency. These ambiguities are resolved with some mild conditions on the estimators being studied, because then White's asymptotic variance is an equivalence class in which...

Existence of a cointegration relationship between two time series in the time domain imposes restrictions on the series zero-frequency behaviour in terms of their squared coherence, phase, and gain, in the frequency domain. I derive these restrictions by studying cross-spectral properties of a...

In this paper we investigate the possibility of the application of subsampling procedure for testing cointegration relations in large multivariate systems. The subsampling technique is applied to overcome the difficulty of nonstandard distribution and nuisance parameters in testing for...

We consider mean-reverting stochastic processes and build a self- consistent model for forward price dynamics and their applications in power industries. This model with stochastic volatility of the forward price is built using the ideas and equations of stochastic differential geometry in order...

Power-law tail behavior and the summation scheme of Levy-stable (alpha- stable) distributions is the basis for their frequent use as models when fat tails above a Gaussian distribution are observed. However, recent studies suggest that financial asset returns exhibit tail exponents well above...