The scaling properties encompass in a simple analysis many of the volatility characteristics of financial markets. That is why we use them to probe the different degree of markets development. We empirically study the scaling properties of daily Foreign Exchange rates, Stock Market indices and...

This is the FINAL draft of this paper reporting the results of a long ongoing competition. The paper now is forthcoming in the Journal of Econometrics. This final version replaces the earlier draft that was also in this archive. Interest has been growing in testing for nonlinearity or chaos in...

Fellows of the Journal of Econometrics are invited to publish personal opinions regarding the field of econometrics in that journal. This paper is a statement of my personal opinion about the potential role of the World Wide Web in improving data quality and availability in economics. The paper...

In this paper, we develop a parametric test procedure for multiple horizon "Granger" causality and apply the procedure to the well established problem of determining causal patterns in aggregate monthly U.S. money and output. As opposed to most papers in the parametric causality literature, we...

This paper uses an econometric model and Bayesian estimation to reverse engineer the path of inflation expectations implied by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the data. The estimated expectations roughly track the patterns of a number of common measures of expected inflation available from...

In this paper, we borrow some of the key concepts of nonequilibrium statistical systems, to develop a framework for analyzing a self-organizing-optimizing system of independent interacting agents, with nonlinear dynamics at the macro level that is based on stochastic individual behavior at the...

The prototypical Lee-Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently across age groups. In this paper, we propose a parametric factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple factors are designed to influence the age groups...

In this paper we propose a test for a set of linear restrictions in a Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) model. This test is based on the autoregressive metric, a notion of distance between two univariate ARMA models, M0 and M1, introduced by Piccolo in 1990. In particular, we show...

It is well known that in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model Granger non-causality is characterized by a set of restrictions on the VAR coefficients. This characterization has been derived under the assumption of non-singularity of the covariance matrix of the innovations. This note shows that...

In this paper, we consider the question and present evidence as to whether or not Benford's exponential first significant digit (FSD) law reflects a fundamental principle behind the complex and nondeterministic nature of large-scale physical and behavioral systems. As a behavioral example, we...