We provide empirical evidence of volatility forecasting in relation to asymmetries present in the dynamics of both return and volatility processes. Using recently-developed methodologies to detect jumps from high frequency price data, we estimate the size of positive and negative jumps and...

The aims of this paper are estimate and forecast the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU, for Brazilian unemployment time series data. In doing so, we introduce a methodology for estimating mixed additive seasonal autoregressive (MASAR) models, by the Generalized Method of...

We examine the relationship between consistent parameter estimation and model selection for autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects. We find that the transformation of fixed effects proposed by Lancaster (2002) does not necessarily lead to consistent estimation of common parameters...

To capture location shifts in the context of model selection, we propose selecting significant step indicators from a saturating set added to the union of all of the candidate variables. The null retention frequency and approximate non-centrality of a selection test are derived using a...

Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility...