The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the success of the Litterman prior in VAR forecasting is not due to … misspecified as white noise, and (3) the inclusion of an irrelevant unit root process in VAR. …

-dimensional surfaces. We propose to extend their use to finance and, in particular, to forecasting yield curves. We present the results of … Kriging method based on the anisotropic variogram. Furthermore, a comparison with other recent methods for forecasting yield … competitive with the other forecasting models considered. …

volatility information improves the day volatility estimation. The results indicate a forecasting improvement using bivariate …

This paper is an exercise in applied macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the forecasting power of a vector error … expenditure as suggested by the economic theory. We compare the estimated forecasting values of the endogenous variables to the …

This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a … models. In order to explain this poor performance, we use a forecasting error decomposition. We identify four components and …

Implications of nonlinearity, nonstationarity and misspecification are considered from a forecasting perspective. My …