This paper proposes a class of partial cointegrated models allowing for structural breaks in the deterministic terms. Moving-average representations of the models are given. It is then shown that, under the assumption of martingale difference innovations, the limit distributions of partial...

This paper investigates the performance of a jackknife correction to a test for cointegration rank in a vector autoregressive system. The limiting distributions of the jackknife-corrected statistics are derived and the critical values of these distributions are tabulated. Based on these critical...

In cointegration analysis, it is customary to test the hypothesis of unit roots separately for each single time series. In this note, we point out that this procedure may imply large size distortion of the unit root tests if the DGP is a VAR. It is well-known that univariate models implied by a...

Testing for the equality of integration orders is an important topic in time series analysis because it constitutes an essential step in testing for (fractional) cointegration in the bivariate case. For the multivariate case, there are several versions of cointegration, and the version given in...

This paper analyzes the robustness of the estimate of a positive productivity shock on hours to the presence of a possible unit root in hours. Estimations in levels or in first differences provide opposite conclusions. We rely on an agnostic procedure in which the researcher does not have to...

The paper considers tests of seasonal integration and cointegration for multivariate time series. The locally best invariant (LBI) test of the null hypothesis of a deterministic seasonal pattern against the alternative of seasonal integration is derived for a model with Gaussian i.i.d....

The long and persistent swings in the real exchange rate have for a long time puzzled economists. Recent models built on imperfect knowledge economics seem to provide a theoretical explanation for this persistence. Empirical results, based on a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model,...

Examinations of the dynamics of daily returns and volatility in stock markets of the US, Hong Kong and mainland China (Shanghai and Shenzhen) over 2 January 2001 to 8 February 2013 suggest: (1) evidence of unidirectional return spillovers from the US to the other three markets; but no spillover...

The episodes of stock market crises in Europe and the U.S.A.since the year 2000,and the fragility of the international stock markets,have sparked the interest of researchers in understanding and in modeling the markets’ rising volatilities in order to prevent against crises.Portfolio managers...

We impose a structure on the short-run market inefficiencies in the asset markets and use this structure to identify a structural vector autoregressive model. This novel identification method is based on more reasonable assumptions than the standard approaches and also gives estimates for...